In June last year, for the first time, a direct conflict broke out between Israel and Iran which came to be known as the 12-day war. During this war, Arab/ gulf countries strongly condemned Israel for starting it and yet, curiously enough, many of them joined Western countries to protect Israel from the powerful Iranian missiles by way of interception.
When All Islamic Nations Joined Hands to Fight Israel
A war between Israel and any other Arab country is judged as religious war and it often leads to coalition of Arabs or Muslim nations to fight back together. This fact can be collaborated by series of wars fought between Israel and joint army of several Muslim countries since the birth of modern state of Israel in 1948.
Here’s a timeline of some of these major wars since 1948:
- Date: May 14, 1948 -
- Parties: Israel vs. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and others
- Date: 1967 Six-Day War
- Parties: Israel vs. Egypt, Syria, Jordan
- Date: October 6 – October 25, 1973
- Parties: Egypt and Syria vs. Israel
For years, Israel maintained itself the most powerful state militarily in the Middle East and so it had no problem taking on a fight that incurs collective attack of all the Muslim militaries surrounding it.
At the time, a relatively powerful military in the middle east was Egypt, followed slightly by Syria. Israel was so powerful that it fought against more than 5 Arab states and beat them all together. Today, these Muslim countries are not as weak as they used to be.
Over the years, many Islamic countries have built very strong economies and militaries to protect their own interests. This is why it’s dangerous and even unthinkable for Israel to start any war that may be seen as religious war, incurring the collective military might of these same countries as it used to be.
Iran into the Picture
Now let’s pull Iran into the picture. For nearly 50years, Iran led by its hardline Islamic leaders has been threatening Israel existentially. They even bully the mighty U.S.A for years and none of these, undoubtedly most powerful two countries in the world could take on Iran directly.
Several presidents of the United States had the appetite to go to war with Iran but they were simply too afraid to do so. Israel which was birthed in war, breathes war and lives war was also afraid to take on Iran directly for many years; as they boast, like the ancient story of Goliath in front of shaken army of Israel to wipe them off the Middle East.
Is Israel or U.S afraid to attack Iran?
For all these years? Well, it is fair to say yes. The most important question is; "Did Israel or U.S delay direct attack on Iran because it was too powerful to fight?" The answer is no! The reason why U.S or Israel was afraid or hesitant to do so has nothing to do directly with the military might of Iran.
In fact, for an open, rule-less war between Iran and Israel alone, Iran has no chance; not to talk of the most powerful nation on earth currently-U.S. The only reason Israel or U.S hesitated to attack Iran was fear of religious war.
A Potential Religious War (World War3)
Iran, over the years positioned itself as the leader of the Islamic world. A major attack on it could trigger wider conflict, based on religious sentiment. This could lead to World War 3 and neither Israel nor U.S is ready to be the orchestrator of a mutually destructive world war.
Attack on Iran; Why Now?
Iran is one of the largest countries in the world with 92 million citizens. Its neighbors in the Gulf are much smaller. For instance, Oman has 2.5 million nationals, United Arab Emirates has 1.2 million and Qatar has about just 300K citizens. (Note: the millions of expatriates excluded.)
Different Religious Interpretations/Ideologies
Islamic countries do not have the same doctrine and so some are more radical in practice of the Islamic faith while others are relatively moderate and accommodating.
Unfortunately, Muslim groups or countries sometimes oppose or fight each other on the basis of these ideologies. One group may even try to dominate and impose its version/ interpretation on the other.
Interestingly, all 6 Gulf countries close to Shia Iran practice Sunni Islam. There are several times where Iran indirectly attacked and tried to dominate some of these much smaller gulf countries.
Iran’s open support for Islamic fighter groups or proxies.
There are many notorious Sunni Islamic terror groups like al-Qaida, ISIS, Boko haram. These radical groups are not openly sponsored by Sunni Islamic countries.
However, these are some of the radical Islamic fighter-groups that enjoy direct state-sponsored support from Iran: Houthi movement in Yemen, Islamic resistant in Iraq, Hezbollah in Iraq and Lebanon and others. Iran openly provides arms and other funding to these groups so that they are able to destructively attack other countries; especially the gulf states.
Muslim countries are more worried about unstoppable Iran
So, Israel and U.S are worried about a powerful, domineering Iran, but most fearful are these several Muslim countries close to its borders, including many other Sunni countries far away.
Iran has showed time and time again that, if it has its own way, it would not hesitate to attack other countries, especially the smaller ones around it to dominate and impose its version of ideology on them. This is why the Gulf countries decided to run under the umbrella of United states’ military power by way of allowing several military bases and other security agreements.
It is partly, again, the reason why the Gulf states have warned that Iran cannot have nuclear weapon and if they do, they too would have no option but to build one.
Solution
So, anything or anyone that could take on Iran to block it from ever having nuclear weapons is warmly welcomed by the many Sunni Muslim sects around the world. This explains further, why other Muslim nations do not view this war on Iran as religious war and they quietly support it.
They ‘hired’ United States or Israel to do the job for them
In the final analysis, Israel or US decided now to strike Iran in 2026 because majority of other Muslim nations actually approve of it. It is like they simply hired U.S or Isarel to do the job for them.
If this analysis is wrong, why do you think all of these Muslim nations continue to harbor U.S military bases even as it went to war with one of their own-Iran? Why did Iran fire more missiles and armed drones at its Muslim neighbors than Israel?
Iran is not ignorant of the fact that, the Gulf countries endorse this first direct war on it by Israel and U.S; even though they openly claim they do not support it.
More importantly, Iran knows the countries that could quickly bring this war to an end are the Gulf states. I believe it's one of the many reasons why Iran fired more missiles and drones at them than Israel, notwithstanding the fact that Israel started the war and mercilessly wiped out almost all of the country’s leadership.
Their Fears Validated
The decision of Iran to strike hard its fellow Muslim neighbors in this war even though none of them threw even a stick at it, only confirms their fears.
This validated fear could only harden the Gulf states to push United States to continue the war until it becomes impossible for Iran to own a nuclear bomb.
I end by reiterating that this war on Iran was started by Israel and US but many other Muslim nations gave the greenlight.
U.S may want to end the war, but they cannot. The only countries capable of ending this war are the ones who sanctioned it. strikingly, it’s Iran’s own Muslim neighbors.
A nuclear armed Iran would not be a problem for Israel alone, the first victims could be these many Islamic countries that do not share in the dictatorial, brutal and radical ideology of the current Islamic leadership of Iran.
