The prevailing condition in Ghana now makes it possible for the country to be thrown into deep turmoil, more than ever before if any of these two candidates won the December 7general election; John Dramani Mahama or Dr. Bawumia.
Ghanaians have been stuck with duo-political system of NDC AND NPP from 1992 and my focus is completely not on specific political parties but the individual candidates presented.
There is this popular notion that Ghanaians are very partisan and elect presidents on tribal and religious line; there’s some truth in that though, it’s only half truth.
In my view, Ghanaians have two main considerations in electing leaders and these are: 1. voting into office a trusted candidate 2. Voting based on ‘try/testing’. These two factors play leading roles from 1992 to 2020 national elections.
However, in the 2024 election, things are quite different as the citizens are faced with a new situation of electing one of two candidates whose style of governing, they are wary of.
To better appreciate my premises, let me take you through a brief journey of how presidents were elected. Starting from the birth of the 4th republic, J.J. Rawlings was the most popular state-man through the revolution he led to the first election of the 4th republic in 1992. He was the man of the people.
By 1990, economic reforms began to yield positive results compared to the previous years of 1980s and so the masses had hope in his leadership. This translated into NDC’s landslide victory in 1992 general election.
Professor Albert Adu Boahen was the flagbearer of the NPP in the 1992 general election and Ghanaians were not ready to ‘try him’ as they were already comfortable with the ‘show man’ -Rawlings. Based on improved economic situation in the country, the people found no reason to try an unfamiliar candidate in the person of J.A Kufuor and so they retain J.J. Rawlings for a 2nd term in the 1996 general election.
By law, Rawlings was expected to leave the scene at the end of his second term. This set the stage for two candidates whose presidency citizens are not so sure of. By the end of Rawlings’ 8-year rule under the fourth republic, the masses grew wary of him and were ready to ‘try’ a new leader.
Ghanaians were more familiar with Professor Mills due to his affiliation with J.J Rawlings as Vice President and so many were not enthused about his presidential bid. This gave J.A Kufuor the upper hand.
J.J Rawlings did everything possible as far as electoral campaign is concerned to get Professor Mills succeed him in the 2000 election but was unsuccessful. J.A Kufuor won that election convincedly.
Again, Ghanaians were comfortable with the J.A. Kufuor’s Presidency after his first term and decided to keep him for a second term in the 2004 election.
By the end of Kufuor’s presidency in 2008, Ghanaians again were presented with two candidates they were not very sure of-Professor Mills and Nana Akufo Addo. They went for Professor Mills because people were again dissatisfied with the country’s economic condition under the NPP led government.
Unfortunately, Professor Mills died in office in an election year, 24th July 2012 and was succeeded by the then Vice President, John Dramani Mahama.
Majority of the citizens are becoming increasingly despondent and impatient about the slow pace of development in the country after years of trial and testing of different leaderships under the two major parties. Mr. Mahama as the substantive candidate against Nana Akufo Addo struggled to win the 2012 election and its dispute ended up in the Supreme Court.
As stated earlier, Ghanaians at this point are tired of failure of successive administrations to deliver on the ‘better Ghana for all’ slogan and so become more critical of any government that is underperforming against expectation.
Mahama was the first victim of this increased fatigue and high expectations of the citizens. This made it easier for President Akufo Addo to benefit from the trial/testing model of the Ghanaian electorates. In 2016, he, Mahama became the first president to lose an election after first term under the 4th republic.
In his first term as president, the Akufo Addo-led government underestimated the high expectations of the people to make things easier for the common man and this was showed in his bid for a second term. He almost lost the 2020 election. For the first time, Ghana’s parliament was left hanging with an ambiguous majority.
The high expectations of the people were crushed against the high mountain of excruciating economic difficulty the country is currently going through. In 2016, high expectations of the people made President Mahama look like a devil and took away his voice to defend himself, even though he felt he was doing his best.
However, in 2024, the black charcoal of nearly 8years of bad governance by Akufo Addo-led presidency has successfully washed clean Mahama’s dissatisfied leadership and made him more appealing to majority of the people than 8 or 12years ago.
With Vice President Dr. Bawumia closely identified with this painful second term of Akufo Addo, Ghanaians no longer have the choice to elect a president on the basis of try and error.
The electorates are caught up between hard surface and rock. It’s like a lady who is forced to choose between two men who abused her in past relationship.
Ghanaians would have been left with try/test experience if either of the parties had presented different candidate for the 2024 election.
It’s on this premises I believe whoever wins the 2024 election could put his presidency at serious risk if things remain the same or get worst through unrestrained corruption and dissipation of the national purse into personal pockets and accounts.
There is indeed a high blood pressure of frustration, anger and anaemia of hope. The next actions of the next government will determine the reaction of the disadvantaged masses.
